(* Content-type: application/vnd.wolfram.mathematica *) (*** Wolfram Notebook File ***) (* http://www.wolfram.com/nb *) (* CreatedBy='Mathematica 8.0' *) (*CacheID: 234*) (* Internal cache information: NotebookFileLineBreakTest NotebookFileLineBreakTest NotebookDataPosition[ 157, 7] NotebookDataLength[ 22044, 694] NotebookOptionsPosition[ 20728, 643] NotebookOutlinePosition[ 21312, 666] CellTagsIndexPosition[ 21269, 663] WindowFrame->Normal*) (* Beginning of Notebook Content *) Notebook[{ Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell["\<\ Exercices r\[EAcute]solus - 2 - Probabilit\[EAcute]s\ \>", "Section", CellChangeTimes->{{3.539516964165578*^9, 3.539516965722534*^9}}], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell["\<\ Sur 10000 personnes d\[CloseCurlyQuote]un \[AHat]ge donn\[EAcute], il y a 400 \ cas de cancer du poumon. Sur ces 10000 personnes, il y avait 6000 fumeurs dont 300 avaient le cancer \ du poumon. Quelle est la probabilit\[EAcute] qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]une personne \ tir\[EAcute]e au hasard a) n\[CloseCurlyQuote]ait pas le cancer du poumon; b) soit un fumeur canc\[EAcute]reux; c) soit un fumeur si on sait qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]elle est canc\[EAcute]reuse?\ \ \>", "Titre2", CellChangeTimes->{{3.539516980747326*^9, 3.539517007024907*^9}, { 3.539517873102725*^9, 3.539517873446746*^9}}], Cell[TextData[{ Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["400", "10000"], "=", "0.04"}]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", "F", ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["6000", "10000"], "=", "0.6"}]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"C", "|", "F"}], ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["300", "6000"], "=", "0.05"}]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"C", "\[Intersection]", "F"}], ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["300", "10000"], "=", "0.03"}]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\na) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", SuperscriptBox["C", "c"], ")"}], "=", "0.96"}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\nb) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"F", "\[Intersection]", "C"}], ")"}], "=", "0.03"}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\nc) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"F", "|", "C"}], ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox[ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"F", "\[Intersection]", "C"}], ")"}], RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["0.03", "0.04"], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["3", "4"], "=", "0.75"}]}]}]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"] }], "cadre", CellChangeTimes->{{3.539517035557723*^9, 3.53951710075218*^9}, { 3.539517137269816*^9, 3.539517299057014*^9}}] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell["\<\ 10. Un homme a dans sa poche un trousseau de 6 clefs. Avant de rentrer chez \ lui, il constate qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]il a perdu une clef. Il doit ouvrir sa \ porte qui comporte deux serrures. Trouver a) la probabilit\[EAcute] qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]il sache ouvrir la porte; b) la probabilit\[EAcute] qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]il puisse ouvrir la porte avec \ les deux premi\[EGrave]res clefs qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]il essaie.\ \>", "Titre2", CellChangeTimes->{{3.5395173344109488`*^9, 3.53951735762424*^9}, { 3.5395178675282497`*^9, 3.5395178963513527`*^9}}], Cell[TextData[{ "a) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ FractionBox["4", "6"], "=", FractionBox["2", "3"]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\nb) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{ FractionBox["4", "6"], FractionBox["2", "5"], FractionBox["1", "4"]}], "=", FractionBox["1", "15"]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"] }], "cadre", CellChangeTimes->{{3.539517366565217*^9, 3.539517398783836*^9}, { 3.539517433741209*^9, 3.5395174483359747`*^9}}] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell["\<\ Dans une \[EAcute]cole, 40 \[EAcute]tudiants ont Abel comme professeur, 60 \ ont Baudouin comme professeur. 10 \[EAcute]tudiants d\[CloseCurlyQuote]Abel ont rat\[EAcute], et 12 \ \[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ves de Baudouin ont rat\[EAcute]. a) Un \[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ve ayant rat\[EAcute] est tir\[EAcute] au hasard. \ Quelle est la probabilit\[EAcute] qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]il ait Abel comme \ professeur\[NonBreakingSpace]? b) Quelle est la probabilit\[EAcute] qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]un \[EAcute]l\ \[EGrave]ve quelconque ait rat\[EAcute] et soit un \[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ve de \ Baudouin? c) Quelle est la probabilit\[EAcute] qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]un \[EAcute]l\ \[EGrave]ve choisi au hasard soit en \[EAcute]chec\[NonBreakingSpace]?\ \>", "Titre2", CellChangeTimes->{{3.539517493848287*^9, 3.53951753657019*^9}, { 3.539517869318508*^9, 3.539517869646741*^9}}], Cell[TextData[{ "a) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"Abel", "|", "\[EAcute]chec"}], ")"}], " ", "=", " ", RowBox[{ FractionBox[ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"Abel", " ", "\[Intersection]", " ", "\[EAcute]chec"}], ")"}], RowBox[{"P", "(", "\[EAcute]chec", ")"}]], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox[ RowBox[{ FractionBox["40", "100"], " ", FractionBox[".10", "40"]}], FractionBox["22", "100"]], "=", FractionBox["10", "22"]}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\nplus simplement,\nnombre d\[CloseCurlyQuote]\[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ves en \ \[EAcute]chec = 22\nnombre d\[CloseCurlyQuote]\[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ves en \ \[EAcute]chec chez Abel=10\nb) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"\[EAcute]chec", "\[Intersection]", "Baudouin"}], ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ RowBox[{ FractionBox["60", "100"], FractionBox["12", "60"]}], "=", FractionBox["12", "100"]}]}], TraditionalForm]], FormatType->"TraditionalForm"], "\nc) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", "\[EAcute]chec", ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"\[EAcute]chec", " ", "\[Intersection]", "Abel"}], ")"}], " ", "+", " ", RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"\[EAcute]chec", " ", "\[Intersection]", " ", "Baudouin"}], ")"}]}], "=", RowBox[{ RowBox[{ RowBox[{ FractionBox["40", "100"], " ", FractionBox["10", "40"]}], "+", RowBox[{ FractionBox["60", "100"], FractionBox["12", "60"]}]}], "=", FractionBox["11", "50"]}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\nplus simplement,\nnombre d\[CloseCurlyQuote]\[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ves en \ \[EAcute]chec =22\nnombre d\[CloseCurlyQuote]\[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ves =100" }], "cadre", CellChangeTimes->{{3.539517549298387*^9, 3.539517630424777*^9}, { 3.539517692007691*^9, 3.5395177745916767`*^9}}] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[TextData[{ "11. Un test rapide pour d\[EAcute]tecter le cancer a \[EAcute]t\[EAcute] \ mis au point. Si un individu est canc\[EAcute]reux, il y a 95 chances sur 100 \ que le test r\[EAcute]agisse positivement. Par contre, s'il est sain, il y a \ quand m\[EHat]me 10 chances sur 100 que le test r\[EAcute]agisse \ positivement. Dans une population donn\[EAcute]e, on compte 18,5 % de r\ \[EAcute]actions positives.\na) Trouver la proportion th\[EAcute]orique de \ canc\[EAcute]reux dans cette population.\t", StyleBox["0.1", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\nb) Si un individu est pris au hasard dans cette population, trouver la \ probabilit\[EAcute] qu'il soit canc\[EAcute]reux et r\[EAcute]agisse au test. \ ", StyleBox["0.095", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\nc) Si un individu choisi au hasard dans cette population a r\[EAcute]agi \ positivement au test, trouver la probabilit\[EAcute] que cet individu soit \ effectivement atteint du cancer.\t", StyleBox["0.513514", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]] }], "Titre2", CellChangeTimes->{{3.4715150432781878`*^9, 3.471515063443638*^9}, { 3.47151573086954*^9, 3.471515731122117*^9}, {3.4715164070828047`*^9, 3.471516414374674*^9}, {3.5071779815616903`*^9, 3.50717798245658*^9}, 3.5373368685332947`*^9, {3.53733696405436*^9, 3.537337001116192*^9}}], Cell[TextData[{ Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", RowBox[{"(", RowBox[{"positif", " ", "|", " ", "cancer"}], ")"}]}], "=", "0.95"}], TraditionalForm]]], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"positif", " ", "|", " ", SuperscriptBox["cancer", "c"]}], ")"}], " ", "=", " ", "0.1"}], TraditionalForm]]], "\na) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", "positif", ")"}], "=", "0.185"}], TraditionalForm]]], "=P(cancer \[Intersection] positif) + P(cancer \[Intersection] ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ SuperscriptBox["positif", "c"], TraditionalForm]]], ")=", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"0.95", " ", RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]}], "+", RowBox[{"0.1", " ", RowBox[{"(", RowBox[{"1", "-", RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]}], ")"}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{"0.185", "=", RowBox[{"0.1", "+", RowBox[{"0.85", " ", RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}], "=", RowBox[{ FractionBox["0.085", "0.85"], "=", "0.1"}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\nP(cancer)=P(cancer \[Intersection] positif) + P(cancer \[Intersection] ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ SuperscriptBox["positif", "c"], TraditionalForm]]], ")=", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"0.95", " ", RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]}], "+", RowBox[{"0.1", " ", RowBox[{"(", RowBox[{"1", "-", RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]}], ")"}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\nb) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"cancer", " ", "\[Intersection]", " ", "positif"}], ")"}], "=", " ", RowBox[{ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", "cancer", ")"}], " ", RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"positif", " ", "|", " ", "cancer"}], ")"}]}], "=", RowBox[{ RowBox[{"0.1", " ", "0.95"}], "=", "0.095"}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\nc) ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"C", "|", "P"}], ")"}], "=", RowBox[{Cell[TextData[Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ FractionBox[ RowBox[{"P", "(", RowBox[{"C", " ", "\[Intersection]", " ", "P"}], ")"}], RowBox[{"P", "(", "P", ")"}]], "=", FractionBox[ RowBox[{"0.95", " ", "0.1"}], "0.185"]}], TraditionalForm]]]]], "=", RowBox[{"0.5135135135135135`", "=", RowBox[{"95", "/", "185"}]}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]] }], "cadre", CellChangeTimes->{{3.471515047259499*^9, 3.471515060530604*^9}, { 3.47151573815571*^9, 3.471515917519438*^9}, {3.471515953069335*^9, 3.471515969336195*^9}, {3.4715161319829073`*^9, 3.4715161419216413`*^9}, { 3.471516174158284*^9, 3.471516367964025*^9}, {3.471516419266533*^9, 3.471516424394946*^9}}] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[TextData[{ "12. Un ranch poss\[EGrave]de 20 chevaux (6 blancs, 5 noirs et 9 gris) et \ une cal\[EGrave]che pr\[EAcute]vue pour \[EHat]tre tir\[EAcute]e par 2 \ chevaux. Le cocher de la cal\[EGrave]che choisit au hasard les 2 chevaux de l\ \[CloseCurlyQuote]attelage, parmi les 20 chevaux du ranch.\na) Calculer la \ probabilit\[EAcute] des \[EAcute]v\[EAcute]nements \ suivants\[NonBreakingSpace]:\n\tA\[NonBreakingSpace]: \[LeftGuillemet]\ \[NonBreakingSpace]les 2 chevaux sont blancs\[NonBreakingSpace]\ \[RightGuillemet],\t\t\t", StyleBox["0.0789474", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\n\tB\[NonBreakingSpace]: \[LeftGuillemet]\[NonBreakingSpace]l\ \[CloseCurlyQuote]un des chevaux, au moins, est blanc\[NonBreakingSpace]\ \[RightGuillemet],\t\t", StyleBox["0.521053", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\n\tC\[NonBreakingSpace]: \[LeftGuillemet]\[NonBreakingSpace]les 2 chevaux \ sont de la m\[EHat]me couleur\[NonBreakingSpace]\[RightGuillemet].\t\t", StyleBox["0.321053", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\nb) Sachant que les deux chevaux de l\[CloseCurlyQuote]attelage sont de \ couleurs diff\[EAcute]rentes, quelle est la probabilit\[EAcute] pour que l\ \[CloseCurlyQuote]un soit blanc\[NonBreakingSpace]?\t\t", StyleBox["0.651163", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\nc) Des enfants effectuent un stage de 3 jours dans le ranch. le cocher \ organise alors, chaque jour, une promenade en cal\[EGrave]che. Chaque jour, \ il choisit au hasard l\[CloseCurlyQuote]attelage.\nCalculer la probabilit\ \[EAcute] des \[EAcute]v\[EAcute]nements suivants\[NonBreakingSpace]:\n\t", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ SubscriptBox["E", "0"], TraditionalForm]]], "\[NonBreakingSpace]: \ \[LeftGuillemet]\[NonBreakingSpace]l\[CloseCurlyQuote]attelage n\ \[CloseCurlyQuote]est jamais unicolore\[NonBreakingSpace]\[RightGuillemet],\t\ \t", StyleBox["0.312974", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]], "\n\t", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ SubscriptBox["E", "1"], TraditionalForm]]], "\[NonBreakingSpace]: \ \[LeftGuillemet]\[NonBreakingSpace]l\[CloseCurlyQuote]attelage est unicolore \ exactement une fois\[NonBreakingSpace]\[RightGuillemet].\t", StyleBox["0.443986", FontSlant->"Italic", FontColor->RGBColor[0.5, 0, 0.5]] }], "Titre2", CellChangeTimes->{ 3.471515073701281*^9, {3.471516374992196*^9, 3.471516382165702*^9}, { 3.507177987736833*^9, 3.507177988664795*^9}, {3.537337101417485*^9, 3.5373371571380167`*^9}, 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"(", "BB", ")"}], "+", RowBox[{"P", "(", "NN", ")"}], "+", RowBox[{"P", "(", "GG", ")"}]}], "=", RowBox[{ RowBox[{ FractionBox[ SubsuperscriptBox["C", "6", "2"], SubsuperscriptBox["C", "20", "2"]], "+", FractionBox[ SubsuperscriptBox["C", "5", "2"], SubsuperscriptBox["C", "20", "2"]], "+", FractionBox[ SubsuperscriptBox["C", "9", "2"], SubsuperscriptBox["C", "20", "2"]]}], "=", RowBox[{ RowBox[{ FractionBox["15", "190"], "+", FractionBox["10", "190"], "+", FractionBox["36", "190"]}], "=", FractionBox["61", "190"]}]}]}]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\nb) P(couleur ", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{"\[NotEqual]", " "}], TraditionalForm]]], ")=", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"1", "-", RowBox[{"P", "(", "C", ")"}]}], "=", FractionBox["129", "190"]}], TraditionalForm]]], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"P", RowBox[{"(", RowBox[{ RowBox[{"1", " ", "blanc"}], " ", "|", " ", RowBox[{"couleur", " ", Cell[TextData[Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ RowBox[{"\[NotEqual]", " "}], 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Dans une classe, il y a 8 filles et 12 gar\[CCedilla]ons. Dans une autre \ classe, 11 filles et 7 gar\[CCedilla]ons. On tire une classe au sort (pile ou \ face) puis, dans la classe d\[EAcute]sign\[EAcute]e, on choisit au hasard un \ \[EAcute]l\[EGrave]ve. Une fille a-t-elle plus de chance d\[CloseCurlyQuote]\ \[EHat]tre d\[EAcute]sign\[EAcute]e qu\[CloseCurlyQuote]un gar\[CCedilla]on\ \[NonBreakingSpace]?\ \>", "Titre2", CellChangeTimes->{ 3.4715152259004908`*^9, 3.506432128660983*^9, 3.5071774660913773`*^9, { 3.5071788917562237`*^9, 3.507178892620008*^9}}], Cell[TextData[{ Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ InterpretationBox[ RowBox[{"\<\"P(fille) = P(fille \[Intersection] classe A) + P(fille \ \[Intersection] classe B) = \"\>", "\[InvisibleSpace]", FractionBox["91", "180"]}], SequenceForm[ "P(fille) = P(fille \[Intersection] classe A) + P(fille \[Intersection] \ classe B) = ", Rational[91, 180]], Editable->False], TraditionalForm]], "Print"], "\n", Cell[BoxData[ FormBox[ InterpretationBox[ RowBox[{"\<\"P(gar\[CCedilla]on) = \"\>", "\[InvisibleSpace]", FractionBox["89", "180"]}], SequenceForm["P(gar\[CCedilla]on) = ", Rational[89, 180]], Editable->False], TraditionalForm]], "Print"] }], "cadre", CellChangeTimes->{3.471527090658173*^9, 3.50643212866129*^9, 3.507177466091627*^9}] }, Closed]] }, WindowToolbars->"EditBar", CellGrouping->Manual, WindowSize->{762, 727}, WindowMargins->{{Automatic, -996}, {Automatic, 36}}, PrintingCopies->1, PrintingPageRange->{1, Automatic}, PageHeaders->{{Inherited, Inherited, Inherited}, { "macformath.net", Inherited, Inherited}}, CellLabelAutoDelete->True, FrontEndVersion->"8.0 for Mac OS X x86 (32-bit, 64-bit Kernel) (October 5, \ 2011)", StyleDefinitions->"stylemath.nb" ] (* End of Notebook Content *) (* Internal cache information *) (*CellTagsOutline CellTagsIndex->{} *) (*CellTagsIndex CellTagsIndex->{} *) (*NotebookFileOutline Notebook[{ Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[579, 22, 145, 3, 44, "Section"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[749, 29, 598, 12, 139, "Titre2"], Cell[1350, 43, 1819, 67, 225, "cadre"] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[3206, 115, 558, 9, 91, "Titre2"], Cell[3767, 126, 543, 20, 87, "cadre"] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[4347, 151, 857, 15, 111, "Titre2"], Cell[5207, 168, 2010, 60, 262, "cadre"] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[7254, 233, 1406, 27, 171, "Titre2"], Cell[8663, 262, 2965, 100, 628, "cadre"] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[11665, 367, 2614, 57, 276, "Titre2"], Cell[14282, 426, 4251, 150, 328, "cadre"] }, Closed]] }, Open ]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[18582, 582, 323, 6, 39, "Titre2"], Cell[18908, 590, 389, 10, 53, "cadre"] }, Closed]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[19334, 605, 584, 10, 71, "Titre2"], Cell[19921, 617, 791, 23, 83, "cadre"] }, Closed]] } ] *) (* End of internal cache information *)